It's been working nicely so far, and in the future I'll be rolling events for nearby NPC factions too.
Numbers have been pulled out of my nose and have yet to be playtested. Changes to morale last until the end of the next day unless otherwise noted.
1-3. An atmosphere of camaraderie. +1 to morale.
4-6. Festival, birthday, similar attempt to lighten the atmosphere. +2 to morale. Settlers will work less 7-9. or not at all.
10-12. Religious or cultural fervor. +1 to morale, +2 if the settlers have a proper place of worship/culture.
13-15. Great talent revealed. Random settler advances in their job or gains an additional job. 10% chance of gaining a level instead.
16-18. Bountiful land. Difficulty of food-gathering decreases. This will restock nearby over-exploited hexes.
19-21. Exotic resource found: unusual plant, strange ore... (worth 1d100 gp)
22-24. Treasure found (worth 1d4 x 1d100 gp). +1 to morale.
25-27. Strange mood. A settler is inspired by a beautiful or significant sight and creates a work of art worth 1d100 gp. +1 to morale.
28-30. Peculiar mood. A settler does an exceptional job and creates a masterwork (tool, weapon, building...).
31-33. Fragments of an ancient map. A random hex's obvious and hidden features are revealed, and so are the obvious features of the surrounding hexes.
34-36. Rise in loyalty. 1d10 settlers are now willing to risk life and limb to help their leaders (they will go into dungeons).
37-39. Good health. There's something in the air. In the settlement, double HP recovery rates and reroll failed saving throws against disease for the next week.
40-42. Hard at work. Rather than resting, 2d10% settlers spent the day on a random activity benefiting the colony, in addition to normal work-hours.
43-45. A miracle. Something small yet incredible happens. DM rolls on favorite blessings table.
46-48. Internal tensions. -1 to morale.
49-51. Depressing event, like the death of a beloved mascot. -2 to morale. Settlers will work less or not at all.
52-54. Splinter colony. 2d10% settlers contest the local authority and plan to leave the colony to make their own, with blackjack and hookers, or join an existing splinter colony if there is one.
55-57. A settler has an accident or breakdown and can't work for a week.
58-60. Local ecosystem collapse. Difficulty of food-gathering increases. This can empty nearby hexes of resources.
61-63. Cursed object or poisonous plant found. A random settler rolls on the DM's favorite curse table or poison table.
64-66. Shoddy work. 2d10% settlers automatically fail their job for the day.
1d6 rooms of a random building collapses from a quake, fire, other hazard, or wear. 50% chance of injuring 2d10% settlers. -1 to morale.
67-69. Addiction. 2d10% settlers turn to alcoholism or addictive substance from the DM's favorite drugs table.
70-72. Betrayal. A member or sub-faction of the settlement or an allied faction betrays you or them. Roll twice on this table to determine what they sabotaged. The effect of these rolls will happen very soon, but not immediately, and may be stopped.
73-75. Crime. A settler commits a crime for selfish, petty, or noble reasons, or simply out of incompetence. Roll on this table to determine what the settler is responsible for.
76-78. Logistics disaster. Resources are misplaced due to error, lack of care, theft, simple rotten luck, or some other reason. Lose 1d100gp of resources. These may be recovered with enough effort.
79-80. A quake, fire, other hazard, or wear closes a nearby route. Travel time in a random nearby hex is doubled until 100 work-hours are put into fixing the problem.
81-83. Heresy or false prophet. 2d10% settlers now follow a splinter of the dominant religion or have turned to another.
84-86. Hearsay. Roll 1d4 times on a random location's rumor table.
87-89. A settler writes a biography or a book about the settlement. Perhaps one day it might sell or become historically significant.
90-92. Local opinion-setter changes. Settlers' opinion on a random number of factions adjust at random.
93-99 Roll twice more.
100 Roll thrice more.
100 Roll thrice more.